46 thoughts on “Alibaba Inventory Is A Purchase Now! (Progress Inventory)

  1. I don't understand why people are acting afraid. This is the same risk from day one with any Chinese company. Alibaba is a major financial vehicle for that country. It would be a huge mistake to continue poking at this company. It could lead to trillions of foreign investor money moving out of the Chinese market.

  2. There's one important detail left out, which is that Alibaba issues stock every year to compensate employees, over 10 years this dilution is significant.

  3. It seems to be fairly easy to invest in Chinese stocks and find commentary. However, even though India is the 2nd most populous county, projected to shortly overtake China, it seems to be hard to find information on India stocks. With the exception of Infosys which has shot up a lot and a couple of emerging market etfs, if we wanted to diversify to include India, how would we do that? Perhaps a video on the subject?

    India is ranked #5 by GDP and about a quarter of China's GDP. I wonder why China is doing so much better than India from a GDP standpoint and what the projections are for the future?

  4. Great D VID, keep up the good work. I LOADED THE BOAT WHEN IT Baba crash i bought 5k worth of stock at $213. It's has been good to me over the years .

  5. I’ve been waiting for this moment for damn long..I’ve been shooting myself for missing the moment for baba during covid rout in March and feeling that it was overbought as it went up. I looked at Tencent, I looked at SEA and kept missing the boat. THIS IS THE BOAT. I’m getting on it no matter what. ANR <GO> is 63 Buys to 1 hold there are no sells. Target px is a straw man but the fundamentals of this company did not change at all. Time to go full on for a ride. Good luck and good year ahead

  6. I'm just a bit worried that the CCPS financial regulators, rating agency's etc are just mock ups the and the CCP are hiding behind the curtain.

  7. Sven, from a value investor perspective, it might be interesting to look at China Mobile. Together with AT&T the largest telecom in the world, low prize, dividend yield of about 7%, virtually no debt (!), doing business in the protected Chinese market (No international competition)….but maybe I am missing something? There are few informations out there, although it's a whale company – thus, your analysis would be very interesting. Could be a cheap diamond in an overvalued environment. Thx for your work and all the best for 2021!

  8. Hey Sven quick question, if the 10 year treasury yield is 2% and a companies earnings is yielding 10% compared to their price there would be a large margin of safety of like 65%? This is just an example I know that its hard to find a good company with a p/e of 10 today.

  9. I will never buy a Chinese product ever again and I don’t believe the rest of the world will neither, I am taking my country before China besides Biden and son.

  10. Terrific video as always Sven… I'm so glad you mentioned the VIE structure BABA and most other Chinese companies live under, allowing them to trade in foreign markets. My primary concern is the Chinese gov't splitting Alibaba into multiple companies, potentially resulting in VIE holders of BABA not receiving the spinoff shares. I don't think this will happen, but it's surely possible IMO. I still have memories of Alibaba and Jack Ma screwing over major Alibaba pre-IPO investors Softbank and Yahoo, when they spun off Ant Financial. I see no reason something similar couldn't happen now that Alibaba is publicly traded. Would love to hear your thoughts Sven. Thanks!

    BTW… I was a Yahoo shareholder at the time and always felt Jack Ma essentially stole Ant Financial in that spinoff. Ma along with the Chinese government screwed Softbank and Yahoo out of their 20-40% respective stakes in Ant Financial (thru Alibaba ownership). That will forever tarnish my opinion of Jack Ma and has driven my more cautious approach to investing in China.

  11. I own BABA, but I may get out. It is just the number of risks that pile up. The CCP, no assessments of reports, not owning the stock itself, potential delisiting etc. And finally they have a huge (huge!) position in their annual report of intangible assets that is called something like "customer base" with a value of 48 billion US$ (if I remember right, but it was _h_u_g_e_). I really don't know what that position means. It sounds like a joke. Last but not least I don't know what I should think of Jack Ma.

  12. Hi Sven, you have mentioned something very important made me read more about it (thanks a lot for that) which is the Chinese VIE structure, plz have a look at this article in globalscan captail inc website: https://globescancapital.com/chinese-vie-structure-wall-street-continues-to-ignore-the-risks/
    I‘m just wondering if VIE structure is illegal under Chinese law and a scenario like what jack ma did with Alipay back in 2011 could just happen any time again, why ppl are still buying those VIEs which are technically worthless??. Thanks again, I’m always learning from your videos

  13. Sven, I'll be honest, I fear you are focusing too much on your excel analysis and cutting on the quality that was your investment thesis part in the videos. I didn't get the idea that you indeed understood the industry Alibaba is playing in to be making an analysis on it. Their main source of revenue, commerce, is connected to sourcing from several countries in Asia, yes, BUT some regions are becoming more favorable than China for production in the last few years, such as Vietnam. It could very well be a situation like investing in a Japanese Trading Company(slightly different I know) at a time factories started moving out of Japan to cheaper countries.

    I fear in the last few videos you have been too focused on your excel sheet and the sector analysis are gone, which I found a lot more complete and gave a better idea on what one could be investing in. Just an opinion, I understand this is more practical for more viewers, but I really liked the sector analysis like the airports more, or the old VISA videos where you explained how it can be used as an inflation hedge. Which would make it a buy, not a sell as your most recent excel based analysis seemed to lead one to think. I would be far more confident in your recent excel sheet simulations if you ran that in an algorithm and tested to see if indeed companies trended to the intrinsic value you are calculating, based on their Income Statements data and expectations in their presentations to investors with a slight touch of conservatism on the numbers.

    You are an amazing investor and teacher, but I would really prefer to learn from your sector analysis and developed investment thesis, than simply listen to an analysis on the numbers. I would be listening to a trader with focus on statistical analysis otherwise.

  14. Immense value right there! I've been holding alibaba for quite a while, incredible company in horrible environment. I'm not sure if it plays out well, but business fundamentals are certainly on point in this one.

  15. Only thing not mentioned was the American House passing a bill on Chinese listed companies being independently audited like all American listed companies in America.

    3 years to comply or face being delisted. Personally I think this will be resolved satisfactory. Just a smoke screen.

    I am in $276 biggest holding too & haven't sold a share. Long term I think baba is a winner & I will make money.

    China needs baba & won't hurt its baby but the whole Ma & Xi thing is Putin & Kohdorkovsky playing out all over again and we all know how that ended.

    One thing you mentioned i wasn't aware of was the contracts in cayman so thanks for that 👍.

    If this can rebound to $276 fairly quickly be a good sign cup & handle 😉 but suspect such a rise might take a little bit longer.

    Bottom line Jack Ma takes one for the team avoids prison SP recovery & we all live happily ever after (some more than others)

  16. great analysis ! accumulated over 6 months average now 256 with last buys this week. It can go to its 180 dollars again but surely the risk is substantial for this stock. I am looking at limits for 215 and lower to get in during the coming months.

  17. Complementary:

    Baba trading at 2018 levels with revenues 2x since then. About the same free Cash flow as Amazon. Amazon mcap 3x more, P/E 93 vs 29 Baba

    Great coverage, keep the updates coming, high interest from many investors !

    Thank you Sven

  18. Given the recent Brexit decision, it would be interesting to review British stocks. Big investors coming back to the FTSE and a recovery of the pound could provide some tailwinds. For example, GlaxoSmithKline seems to have good fundamentals and pays a relatively high and reliable dividend. What do you think?

  19. I bought BABA at the start of 2020. I rode it up and rode it down, it’s now roughly the same price as when I bought it. I don’t think we’ve hit the bottom yet. It will probably recover but who knows when or by how much. There’s added risk and fear when buying Chinese stock, I don’t think it’s right to make a comparison with Amazon.

  20. Great analysis, like always! If someone is concerned about the ADR's, maybe investing in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988:Hong Kong) would be an option.

  21. Definitely an interesting investment. Timely analysis for sure. Sure does feel like a tenbagger. Thanks Sven for all that you do for us!

  22. The amount of fear mongering here from the west is hilarious. From executing Jack ma, destroying baba to unaudited financial statements. Really?

    China is on path to overtake US in the years to come, and you'd think they kill their face of Chinese entrepreneurship and growth which is Jack ma? That would utterly destroy their position and confidence as the number 1 economy in the world, which is not in their interest.

    Unaudited statements? Do you not know of their financial regulations? They have also been clamping down hard on corruption and bribery. Sure, there may be some that slip through the cracks, but there's so much talk, as if Enron and Wirecard hasn't happened in the west.

    CCP investigating ma is no more than a dad spanking his son to teach him a lesson, but never would he kill his own son as that would hurt himself as well.

    Stop living in a bubble and travel a little.

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